Niger 2023

This blog started when we went to Niger, and I spent 3 years there with my wife and children (our second child was born while we lived there).  As a result, I have a certain interest and attachment to the country.  Working on Chad – with a clear Sahel context – has been ideal to follow what is going on in Niger.  On 26 July 2023 a coup took place in Niger, with elements of the military holding the civilian president and claiming power.
 
A lot has been written and said about the coup, both its causes and its consequences (one of the articles I found the most interesting is by Rahmane Idrissa).  But overall, both looking forward and backwards, it’s probably too soon to say anything definitive.  Some somewhat random thoughts:
 

• Already when we lived there (still under the presidency of Isoufou) there were regular rumors of possible coups.  Due to the history of Niger and the overall context (poverty, insecurity, military, etc.…) this was hardly surprising.  For a range of reasons (incl. his ethnic background) this seemed to get worse under Bazoum.
• While Niger certainly had some democratic credentials (in particular in comparison to its neighbours), it was hardly a solid democracy even with the transfer of power from Issoufou to Bazoum via elections.  The ruling party clearly used extensive power and efforts to control political opposition and critical civil society.
• Structural factors (terrorism, extreme poverty, complex regional context, lack of democratic experience and culture amongst others) always made this a challenge.
• Western partners of Chad – including the EU – put a lot of energy and funds into the army and security sector but also broader development cooperation in Niger.  Like in Afghanistan, some reflection on how that went could be desirable.  With no outright war / peace process, it does look like a good opportunity to deliver ‘democracy’ dividends to convince stakeholders (incl. local population) was missed here.
• The quick rise of anti-French and anti-western rhetoric is noteworthy.
• The entire Sahelian belt – from Mauritania (ok, the soldiers held and won elections…) across to Ethiopia and Somalia is best by coups, terrorism, and outright conflict.

 
 
18.08.2023, Brussels, Belgium.