After months of Russian military buildups close to its borders with Ukraine (and in Russia’s ally, Belorussia), two days ago it finally happened – Russia invaded Ukraine.Though inevitably, in particular of late, I have done some reading on the issues (and I would strongly recommend the satirical ‘The Death of Stalin’) I’m not nearly familiar enough with them to arrive at any strong conclusions (or at least they are not particularly interesting to share).But I’ll permit myself a few general points and EU / Africa relevant ones:
 

• For the global economy this is a highly unpredictable negative event with potentially severe consequences.  For Africa, increases in food prices and energy prices could have significant impacts on specific countries.  Furthermore, global trade is unlikely not to be impacted.  After two years of covid, this is profoundly disturbing.
• African countries have been hesitant to comment on the matter, at least in the initial days.  One remembers the saying, ‘when the elephants fight, the grass gets crushed’.
• Global cooperation on issues such as poverty reduction, global tax rules, climate change, and security matters (to name just a few) is unlikely to improve in this context.
• Russian - Western tensions in Africa are unlikely to improve.  One has to be somewhat naïve to think this has much chance of evolving into positive scenarios for the African nations impacted (Libya, CAR, Sudan, Mali…)
• For Europe and the EU – security, of the military type, is likely to become a dominant and urgent priority.

In addition to the personal tragedies that war entails – for the Ukrainian population but frankly also the Russians – this war is undoubtably a global disaster.
 
26.02.2022, Brussels, Belgium.

I started a blog a while ago by stating that, “The past few weeks, and arguably the past years, have not been kind to the Sahelian countries.”  After Mali, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso has now had a coup d’état.  Guinea Bissau faced an attempted coup yesterday.  (I’ll leave out Myanmar for geographic reasons – but the ‘coup’ seems to be back).

Each case has its particularities and specificities.  In Chad, the death of the former long-term dictator clear was the very definition of an institutional crisis.  In Sudan, after a popular uprising against the former dictator, the country is going through a complex transition.  (One has to note the heroic courage of the Sudanese people).  In Guinea the former president (elected democratically) had modified the constitution to allow himself a third term as president.  In Burkina Faso though a democratically elected president (after a popular uprising against the former dictator) has been removed in a coup.  It is clear that both the armed forces and much of the population was frustrated with the president’s difficulties in dealing with the (growing) terrorist menace spilling over from Mali.  Of course, the fact that the army that failed in dealing with the terrorists is taking control is somewhat ironic.
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To me, a few things stand out;

• It is difficult not to see parallels with an Africa of the past where coups were regular.  Even much of the symbolism is the same (announcement by soldiers in gear on the national television; creation of an absurdly named ‘military council for democracy, restoration, bla bla…, etc.)
• The frustration – at least in parts of Africa – with the so-called ‘3rd wave’ of democracy and democracy overall is clear.  While some are convinced democracy is popular in Africa (see this or this) there clearly is some frustration as several of these coups got popular support.
• There is strong frustration with the West, in particular with regards to France in its former colonies.
• Institution building, in at least some of these countries, has been problematic.

So what now?  Maybe it’s a case of 3 steps forward, 2 steps back.  It’s also not an ‘Africa’ issue – several African countries have by now developed solid track records as democracies, even managing complicated elections better than some ‘traditional democracies’ (e.g. Ghana).  Is liberal democracy or strongmen the only choice?  And do foreign actors – including Western ones – help or hinder?  We shall see….  And how to improve governance, in particular when working with security forces in fighting terrorism?
 
02.02.2022, Brussels, Belgium.